Good news if you’re an expat living in Latin America or if you’re thinking about making the jump: safety and security is improving in numerous regions, according to several key criteria. A recent Gallup Law and Order Index looked at local perception of crime in each Latin American nation and found several countries had made big jumps in safety.

Irving Martínez

Why is this particular survey significant?

Because it is based on residents’ personal experience with criminal elements and their feelings about how secure they are in engaging in day-to-day activity. Rather than relying on a third-party assessment, this survey used face-to-face and phone interviews to get down to the local level to see what’s really happening.

The Gallup Law and Order Index examined perceptions from 2013 and compared them to data from 2009. Three main points were considered:

• Confidence in the local police force
• Feeling of safety walking alone at night
• Incidents of property or money stolen from the participant or family member within the last 12 months

So, what did the results show?

Panama is tied at the top as the safest country in the region and went up seven points in its score over the last four years. This should come as no surprise to expats who are already enjoying the pristine beaches and undisturbed jungle of Panama’s more rural areas or to those who have flocked to Panama City, making it a premium retirement destination.

Nicaragua tied with Panama as the safest perceived country in Latin America, up nine points from 2009. Both nations have experienced marked economic growth and a decrease in crime and political violence. Rounding out the top four were Chile (up seven points) and Ecuador.

Ecuador is a fantastic study in what can be accomplished in a relatively short time to both decrease actual crime statistics and boost public opinion about security. President Rafael Correa attributes his nation’s 14-point leap in the Gallup rankings to a three-tiered approach to fighting crime:

• Increased emphasis on arms control
• Widespread judiciary reform
• Improved methods for the capturing of criminals

Ecuador’s new ECU-911 system, implemented in 2012, plays a large part in this. The program coordinates national police, firefighters, armed forces, and transit authorities, as well as other government ministries and organizations, in order to respond immediately to emergencies.

Ana Freitas

The implications are important

The implications of the Gallup Law and Order Index are important not just to your personal safety, but to global economics as well.

Let’s get macro here for a second. A country’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) is basically the sum of what everyone in that country earned in the course of a year or what they spent in a year (those two sums should be about equal). GDP is therefore a primary measure of the health of any nation’s economy.

What happens when crime goes up? GDP goes down. Tourism is reduced, police costs rise, and there is a significant loss of income from incarcerated or otherwise non-participating individuals. Gang-related crime preys on this economic vulnerability, and local businesses suffer. Moreover, foreign investors run the other way, as a bad economy is no place to put their money. The cycle continues, and it can be devastating for a country until they figure out how to turn it around, largely by decreasing crime.

Jurgen Proschinger

That’s all well and good, but what does this mean for you?

If you’re going be investing your hard-earned cash in a foreign economy, you want it to be a stable one where crime is on the downturn and GPD is climbing. This is one of the reasons Panama continues to be so popular right now. It’s been steadily raising its GDP over the last decade and is predicted by the IMF to remain solid.

The Gallup Law and Order Index confirms what many people intuitively feel about crime and macroeconomic growth. Furthermore, the survey’s use of direct contact with the participants lends it a high confidence level (95%) that may not be achievable in other less objective studies conducted by local government or police.

It’s important, too, to look at the overall trends in this survey, rather than just pure rankings. Latin America as a region has improved since 2009. And look at the numbers for Colombia and Costa Rica, for example. Colombia is now perceived as being as safe as Costa Rica. Does that make Costa Rica any less safe? No, it simply points to the strides that Colombia has made in improving its safety and security.

While there are still pocket of violence in Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico (particularly in the U.S. border regions of the latter), overall things are looking promising for Latin America. Knowing how the locals feel about their personal safety is the first step in addressing crime issues that have far-reaching effects on both the macro- and microeconomic level.